State transmission

GEThttps://api.ai4mproject.com/v1/transmission/statesScope: risk_scores

Returns, for the country and each of the 37 states, when reported malaria is expected to be highest in the year, and the malaria positivity measured at each national survey. See Transmission dynamics for how these are worked out.

Parameters

None.

Request

curl

curl "https://api.ai4mproject.com/v1/transmission/states" \
  -H "Authorization: Bearer $AI4M_API_KEY"

Python

report = client.get_transmission()
for state in report.states:
    print(state.state, state.season.peak_month, state.season.season_months)

TypeScript

const report = await client.getTransmission();
for (const state of report.states) {
  console.log(state.state, state.season.peak_month, state.season.season_months);
}

Go

report, err := client.Transmission(ctx)
if err != nil {
  log.Fatal(err)
}
for _, state := range report.States {
  fmt.Println(state.State, state.Season.PeakMonth, state.Season.SeasonMonths)
}

Response

Months are numbered 1 (January) to 12. Arrays of twelve values run January to December.

Field	Type	Description
method	object	How the season is worked out, and under check how it compared with independent monthly records of cases
national.season	object	The season for the country as a whole, with the fields below
national.survey_trend[]	array	One entry per survey round, with the fields below and urban and rural positivity
states[].state_code	string	Two-letter state code
states[].state	string	State name
states[].zone	string	Geopolitical zone
states[].season.peak_month	integer	The month reported cases are expected to be highest
states[].season.season_start_month	integer	First month of the high season
states[].season.season_end_month	integer	Last month of the high season
states[].season.season_months	integer	Length of the high season in months
states[].season.high_months	integer[]	Every month at half the peak or more
states[].season.seasonal_index	number[]	Expected level of reported cases in each month, as a share of the peak month
states[].survey_trend[].survey_year	integer	2010, 2015, 2018 or 2021
states[].survey_trend[].positivity	number	Share of children aged 6 to 59 months who tested positive, from 0 to 1
states[].survey_trend[].low, high	number or null	95% range for the positivity
states[].survey_trend[].clusters	integer	Survey locations in the state that round
states[].survey_trend[].children_tested	integer	Children tested in the state that round
states[].survey_trend[].small_sample	boolean	true when fewer than 100 children were tested

200 OK

{
  "method": {
    "cases_follow_rain_by_months": 1,
    "high_season_share_of_peak": 0.5,
    "description": "Expected seasonal level of reported cases: each LGA's usual rainfall by calendar month, moved one month later and scaled to its peak month. The high season is the run of months at half the peak or more around the peak month, carried across a single lower month.",
    "check": {
      "series": 7,
      "states": [
        "Borno",
        "Enugu",
        "FCT",
        "Kwara",
        "Nasarawa",
        "Zamfara"
      ],
      "median_correlation": 0.875,
      "mean_months_off": 0.56,
      "mean_months_peak_is_off": 1.14
    }
  },
  "national": {
    "season": {
      "peak_month": 8,
      "season_start_month": 6,
      "season_end_month": 11,
      "season_months": 6,
      "high_months": [
        6,
        7,
        8,
        9,
        10,
        11
      ],
      "seasonal_index": [
        0.034,
        0.037,
        0.076,
        0.202,
        0.356,
        0.608,
        0.827,
        1,
        0.99,
        0.976,
        0.65,
        0.15
      ]
    },
    "survey_trend": [
      {
        "survey_year": 2010,
        "positivity": 0.473,
        "low": 0.433,
        "high": 0.512,
        "clusters": 234,
        "children_tested": 5133,
        "small_sample": false,
        "urban": 0.322,
        "rural": 0.529
      },
      {
        "survey_year": 2015,
        "positivity": 0.432,
        "low": 0.398,
        "high": 0.466,
        "clusters": 317,
        "children_tested": 5886,
        "small_sample": false,
        "urban": 0.239,
        "rural": 0.534
      },
      {
        "survey_year": 2018,
        "positivity": 0.384,
        "low": 0.368,
        "high": 0.401,
        "clusters": 1136,
        "children_tested": 10411,
        "small_sample": false,
        "urban": 0.251,
        "rural": 0.468
      },
      {
        "survey_year": 2021,
        "positivity": 0.384,
        "low": 0.361,
        "high": 0.407,
        "clusters": 548,
        "children_tested": 10656,
        "small_sample": false,
        "urban": 0.257,
        "rural": 0.436
      }
    ]
  },
  "states": [
    {
      "state_code": "KN",
      "state": "Kano",
      "zone": "North West",
      "season": {
        "peak_month": 9,
        "season_start_month": 8,
        "season_end_month": 10,
        "season_months": 3,
        "high_months": [
          8,
          9,
          10
        ],
        "seasonal_index": [
          0,
          0.001,
          0.002,
          0.007,
          0.039,
          0.217,
          0.382,
          0.756,
          1,
          0.587,
          0.044,
          0.003
        ]
      },
      "survey_trend": [
        {
          "survey_year": 2010,
          "positivity": 0.385,
          "low": 0.252,
          "high": 0.519,
          "clusters": 10,
          "children_tested": 288,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "survey_year": 2015,
          "positivity": 0.556,
          "low": 0.295,
          "high": 0.817,
          "clusters": 7,
          "children_tested": 153,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "survey_year": 2018,
          "positivity": 0.438,
          "low": 0.357,
          "high": 0.519,
          "clusters": 48,
          "children_tested": 491,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "survey_year": 2021,
          "positivity": 0.576,
          "low": 0.489,
          "high": 0.662,
          "clusters": 18,
          "children_tested": 528,
          "small_sample": false
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "state_code": "LA",
      "state": "Lagos",
      "zone": "South West",
      "season": {
        "peak_month": 7,
        "season_start_month": 6,
        "season_end_month": 11,
        "season_months": 6,
        "high_months": [
          6,
          7,
          8,
          10,
          11
        ],
        "seasonal_index": [
          0.036,
          0.059,
          0.101,
          0.21,
          0.368,
          0.609,
          1,
          0.619,
          0.252,
          0.625,
          0.578,
          0.194
        ]
      },
      "survey_trend": [
        {
          "survey_year": 2010,
          "positivity": 0.253,
          "low": 0.038,
          "high": 0.468,
          "clusters": 9,
          "children_tested": 95,
          "small_sample": true
        },
        {
          "survey_year": 2015,
          "positivity": 0.021,
          "low": 0.006,
          "high": 0.037,
          "clusters": 9,
          "children_tested": 188,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "survey_year": 2018,
          "positivity": 0.042,
          "low": 0.016,
          "high": 0.068,
          "clusters": 39,
          "children_tested": 287,
          "small_sample": false
        },
        {
          "survey_year": 2021,
          "positivity": 0.029,
          "low": 0,
          "high": 0.064,
          "clusters": 15,
          "children_tested": 171,
          "small_sample": false
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}

The example shows two of the 37 states.

Reading the result

• The season says when cases are expected to be highest, not how high. Malaria is transmitted all year in Nigeria.
• Treat peak_month as accurate to about a month. The high season as a whole is more reliable than the single peak month.
• State survey figures from 2010 and 2015 rest on few children. Use low and high, and check small_sample.

Errors

Code	Status	When
SCOPE_REQUIRED	403	The key does not include the scope this endpoint needs
TRANSMISSION_DATA_UNAVAILABLE	503	The transmission data has not been loaded on the server

Any request can also return 401 for a bad key and 429 when a limit is reached. See Errors.

See also

• LGA transmission
• Transmission dynamics